Romney's troops are stuck in the minefield of North Carolina, but Obama's bunkers remain unbreached

All Quiet on the Western Coast

Good news for Mitt Romney. He has the key swing state of North Carolina in the bag. At least that?s what Republicans are saying, announcing earlier in the week that they were pulling out senior members of their campaign team to deploy them to areas where the US presidential race remains ? according to clich? ? too close to call. Their claim was also given weight on the eve of the Monday?s final presidential debate by Paul Begala, a key Obama supporter, and former adviser to Bill Clinton. Asked by CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer if he thought Obama?s campaign had given up on the state, Begala replied, ?Yes. I am not supposed to say that, Wolf, but I work for, as you mentioned, the pro-Obama super PAC, and I am being paid to help re-elect the president. But if you look at where he is going and where he is spending money ? yes, it looks like Governor Romney is likely to carry North Carolina.?

But is the capture of North Carolina really the triumph the Republicans are touting? For one, it?s not entirely clear they?ve captured it at all. The Obama campaign insist they have no intention of withdrawing from the state, and point to early voting returns which show them outperforming their efforts in 2008, when they won by a minuscule 0.32 per cent. Admittedly the polls tell a different story, with the current RCP average showing Romney ahead by a healthy 5.6 per cent.

Even if North Carolina has finally fallen into Romney?s hands, though, it doesn?t warrant the positive gloss his team are putting on their ?victory?. Far from it.

To understand the real significance of North Carolina, you need to understand Barack Obama?s strategy for defending his presidency. Essentially, Obama is using the states he won on 2008 as a political Maginot Line.

His campaign is built on the principle of strength in depth. Two or three states represent the outer ring; the barbed wire, and landmines. Next come the second-tier states; his machine gun nests. And finally the states that form the last line of defence, his supposedly indestructible bunkers. To win, Mitt Romney has to penetrate those bunkers, and neutralise them.

North Carolina was all mines and barbed wire. As the state Obama secured by the smallest margin, it was one of the first of the obstacles Romney had to overcome ? along with Indiana, which Obama sneaked into his column by just over 1 per cent. Indiana fell very early in the campaign, effectively as soon as Romney was nominated, and North Carolina was predicted to follow in short order. ?I think what you are beginning to see is they [the Obama campaign] are beginning to make a tactical withdrawal from the state,? Romney?s political director Rich Beeson confidently told journalists. Unfortunately, that statement was issued at the start of September. It?s taken the Romney campaign six additional, and precious, weeks to clear the North Carolina landmines from the path of their advance, and they?re still not out of the minefield yet.

Only now is Mitt Romney is managing to cut through the first line of Obama?s defences, and there are only 13 days of the campaign to go. Indeed, across the country millions of early votes have already been cast.

Obama?s second line of defence is represented by the states of Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Colorado. Here, Romney has only managed a limited penetration. Florida appears to be tilting his way, but remains competitive, and once again the early returns are looking good for Obama. Both Colorado and Virginia remain tied, but in Colorado the early voting is also looking positive for the President, and Obama has the additional advantage of the state?s Latino community, which a number of analysts believe is being significantly under-polled. Finally, there is New Hampshire, where Obama still enjoys a narrow lead.

If Romney?s weary army does manage to finally break through this second ring of steel, they are then going to find themselves confronted by one final imposing obstacle; the cold, unyielding edifice of the Obama firewall states. These are Ohio (Divisional HQ), Wisconsin, Nevada and Iowa. Obama continues to lead, and has always led, in every one. Romney has subjected them to a sustained long-range bombardment, but the heavily fortified bunkers remain largely unscathed. Over the past week Obama?s lead in these states has remained steady, and again, as the early votes are counted, all the evidence is of the defenders' strength growing, rather than weakening.

Mitt Romney?s battered standard may well be flying above North Carolina come November 6th. But if it does, it will be a victory that has cost him lot of blood and treasure. The great Republican general may be winning the odd battle. But he is still losing the war.

Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100186331/romneys-troops-are-stuck-in-the-minefield-of-north-carolina-but-obamas-bunkers-remain-unbreached/

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